TEHRAN – The West Asian region is undergoing significant geopolitical shifts, shifts that could change traditional power structures and see new alliances emerge.

Elliott Abrams’ article, “A Paradigm Shift for the Middle East”, published on February 7, 2025 on Foreign Affairs, advocates for a U.S.-Israeli-led offensive strategy to counter Iran’s influence, particularly in regard to its so-believed nuclear ambitions and alliances with Resistance groups. However, this approach oversimplifies the region’s complex dynamics, misrepresents the nature of these alliances, and fails to account for the broader historical context that shapes West Asia’s ongoing struggles for sovereignty and self-determination.

Abrams reduces Iran’s alliances with groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and other regional Resistance movements to mere acts of “proxy warfare,” portraying them as extensions of Iranian power. This view overlooks the deeper motivations behind these groups, which emerged out of local resistance to foreign occupation and external interference. Hezbollah, for example, formed in response to Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon in the 1980s, and Hamas was created as a resistance force against Israeli occupation in Palestine. These groups are part of a broader regional movement for national sovereignty and justice.

Painful legacy of foreign interventions

A central flaw in Abrams’ analysis is his failure to recognize the role that external interventions have played in the region's instability. For years, U.S. military bases and interventions in countries like Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria have undermined national sovereignty and fueled resentment. 

Abrams praises Israel’s military operations against groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, but this view conveniently ignores the overwhelming power imbalance between Israel and its adversaries. With U.S. backing, Israel’s airstrikes always result in massive civilian casualties and widespread destruction, particularly in Gaza and Lebanon.

Rather than promoting peace, Israel’s military strategy contributes to regional instability by fueling cycles of violence. The continued expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and the ongoing blockade of Gaza are key drivers of the conflict. Abrams’ praise of Israel’s military actions disregards the broader historical context of Israeli aggression, including the occupation of Palestinian territories and the continued violation of international law, including the current genocide that has been going on in Gaza since October 2023.

A misleading nuclear 'threat' narrative

A key theme in Abrams’ article is the claim that Iran’s nuclear program poses an increasing threat. However, this argument is based on exaggeration. Iran remains a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and continues to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). While Iran has expanded its nuclear capabilities in response to the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA, there is no definitive evidence that it is seeking nuclear weapons. More importantly, it wasn't Iran that rendered the JCPOA ineffective. 

Meanwhile, Israel—one of Iran’s loudest critics—maintains an undeclared nuclear arsenal and refuses to sign the NPT. If nuclear proliferation is truly a concern, why does the West ignore Israel’s capabilities while focusing on Iran’s peaceful nuclear program? This double standard undermines the credibility of Western arguments against Iran.

Future of West Asia: Iran’s role

Abrams’ analysis fails to acknowledge Iran’s legitimate role in shaping the future of West Asia. The era of U.S. and Israeli dominance is fading, giving way to a more multipolar order. Iran, alongside other regional and global powers, is central to this transformation. The expansion of BRICS, the decline of U.S. influence, and the resilience of the Axis of Resistance all point to a shifting balance of power.

As Elliott Abrams himself noted, Iran’s evolving partnerships with global powers like China and Russia are altering its position in the region and diminishing U.S. hegemony. This shift is contributing to the narrative of Iran as a "threat," which in reality may reflect the West’s anxiety over the changing dynamics of global power.

Instead of pursuing failed policies of pressure and confrontation, the U.S. and its allies should recognize Iran as a key regional actor and engage in serious diplomacy. Continuing hostility will only further erode Western influence in West Asia.

If Abrams and others genuinely seek stability, they must abandon outdated Cold War-era thinking and accept the reality of a more balanced and multipolar region.